Immigration flow may reverse says David Lawrenson of letting focus.com
One of the big threats to buy to let is the risk that the big flow of immigration may one day start to reverse.
New migrants generally rent and the huge numbers coming to the UK – we are talking millions but the fact is no one really knows least of the all the government – have pushed up demand for rented property.
However, the tide could be turning as the economies of the new EU member states strengthen. The numbers of east European immigrants approved to work in Britain dropped from 227,875 in 2006 to 206,905 last year, a fall of nearly 10 per cent, and the trend is expected to accelerate over the next decade. According to the Independent, “Poles, who make up two-thirds of the newcomers, are understood to be returning home in greater numbers, drawn by higher salaries, job shortages and the fall in the value of the pound against the Zloty”
Also, in yesterdays papers was the threat that mortgages could get more pricey. The Head of the City Regulator the FSA said banks may be forced to keep loans on their own books in future rather than packaging them up and selling them off. This could have the affect of raising the cost of money. My view is that this fear is a bit overblown as there are still plenty of other sources of finance available like the building societies.
Meanwhile, in a separate move, Nationwide has raised the amount of deposit required for access to its best loans to 25%. I feel that this news is more significant for the housing market because this tightening of credit, if followed by other lenders, could lead to a bit of a donwturn in housing prices as borrowers find it harder to get funds. Possibly as much as 5 to 7% over the next year if others lenders follow suit.
What about buy to let mortgages? As far as we can see lenders have now stuck another 20 basis points onto the cost of these loans relative to bank base rate than was the case pre-credit crunch days. However, buy to let loans are still available at 80% loan to value. So, if your credit rating is good, and you have access to money, the effect of all this will be that more property should be available to buy (to let) at lower prices than was available before.
Finally, I was quoted extensively in yesterdays Independent. Here is the link to copy into your broswer: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/house-and-home/property/investment-get-the-best-deals-ndash-now-787640.html
If you need more advice on property investment or buy to let investment in general please ask me.
I’m David Lawrenson from property investment advisors www.lettingfocus.com
I’m the author of the buy to let book “Successful Property Letting - How to Make Money in Buy to Let” the UK’s top selling property title.I’m an expert on property investing for profit and a well known property freelance writer and I contribute to newspapers and a host of property websites, write a property investment blog, a number of columns in the press and run a landlords advice service.
I also work as a consultant helping banks, building societies, housing associations and web portals with their buy to let and property products and services.You can read more of my property investment blog and details of my networking, advice, buy to let networking programme at my website www.lettingfocus.com.My next London landlords networking meeting is on March 12th. Click here for details: Property Investment AdviceWhat’s unique about lettingfocus.com is that we offer independent property mentoring because unlike most people in the buy to let and property “advice” business we are not linked to a property company, developer, agent or bridging loan financier and do not receive commissions from any of these sources.If a property investment is lousy – We’ll tell you straight and we will tell you all about buy to let and property investment - the good and the bad and we won’t make silly promises that you’ll become a millionaire overnight.Copyright: David Lawrenson 2008. This blog is updated at least twice a week. Permission must be sought before using the material in the blog.
New migrants generally rent and the huge numbers coming to the UK – we are talking millions but the fact is no one really knows least of the all the government – have pushed up demand for rented property.
However, the tide could be turning as the economies of the new EU member states strengthen. The numbers of east European immigrants approved to work in Britain dropped from 227,875 in 2006 to 206,905 last year, a fall of nearly 10 per cent, and the trend is expected to accelerate over the next decade. According to the Independent, “Poles, who make up two-thirds of the newcomers, are understood to be returning home in greater numbers, drawn by higher salaries, job shortages and the fall in the value of the pound against the Zloty”
Also, in yesterdays papers was the threat that mortgages could get more pricey. The Head of the City Regulator the FSA said banks may be forced to keep loans on their own books in future rather than packaging them up and selling them off. This could have the affect of raising the cost of money. My view is that this fear is a bit overblown as there are still plenty of other sources of finance available like the building societies.
Meanwhile, in a separate move, Nationwide has raised the amount of deposit required for access to its best loans to 25%. I feel that this news is more significant for the housing market because this tightening of credit, if followed by other lenders, could lead to a bit of a donwturn in housing prices as borrowers find it harder to get funds. Possibly as much as 5 to 7% over the next year if others lenders follow suit.
What about buy to let mortgages? As far as we can see lenders have now stuck another 20 basis points onto the cost of these loans relative to bank base rate than was the case pre-credit crunch days. However, buy to let loans are still available at 80% loan to value. So, if your credit rating is good, and you have access to money, the effect of all this will be that more property should be available to buy (to let) at lower prices than was available before.
Finally, I was quoted extensively in yesterdays Independent. Here is the link to copy into your broswer: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/house-and-home/property/investment-get-the-best-deals-ndash-now-787640.html
If you need more advice on property investment or buy to let investment in general please ask me.
I’m David Lawrenson from property investment advisors www.lettingfocus.com
I’m the author of the buy to let book “Successful Property Letting - How to Make Money in Buy to Let” the UK’s top selling property title.I’m an expert on property investing for profit and a well known property freelance writer and I contribute to newspapers and a host of property websites, write a property investment blog, a number of columns in the press and run a landlords advice service.
I also work as a consultant helping banks, building societies, housing associations and web portals with their buy to let and property products and services.You can read more of my property investment blog and details of my networking, advice, buy to let networking programme at my website www.lettingfocus.com.My next London landlords networking meeting is on March 12th. Click here for details: Property Investment AdviceWhat’s unique about lettingfocus.com is that we offer independent property mentoring because unlike most people in the buy to let and property “advice” business we are not linked to a property company, developer, agent or bridging loan financier and do not receive commissions from any of these sources.If a property investment is lousy – We’ll tell you straight and we will tell you all about buy to let and property investment - the good and the bad and we won’t make silly promises that you’ll become a millionaire overnight.Copyright: David Lawrenson 2008. This blog is updated at least twice a week. Permission must be sought before using the material in the blog.
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Thursday, February 28, 2008.
