Letting Focus says house price bottom may be 12 months off

I thought I’d just post a quick comment on the Lehman and HBOS news and how this affects the property market.
Well, just when you thought it was OK to come out of the bunker another set of bank execs shuffle into view to ‘fess up to the mess they have made of their banking business.
As the execs go back to Monaco or West Palm Beach to check on their bulging bank balances earned in the good times, you might be asking how that alters the picture on property and the optimal time to invest to bag the property bargains that are slowly starting to emerge.
As I have said before it all depends on what type of property you want to buy and where you are because the property market is not homogeneous and moves at different speeds in different areas.
But in general terms, the Lehman collapse and the problems at HBOS will result in the money markets taking fright again with the result that mortgage rates will go up.
Exactly how much they will go up will depend upon the extent of central bank intervention.
But even in the best case scenario I think that the bottom for house prices must now be pushed back by at least another 6 months.
This means that lowest achieved prices in most residential property markets will not be reached for at least another 12 months from now.
So that will give you a bit more time to do your research, get your finances in shape and plan where and what you are going to buy.
A good place to come and find out more is to my investor seminars.
OTHER OFFERS
My next Evening London Seminar and Networking meeting is coming soon – details here… Property Seminar and Networking. Just email us at david@lettingfocus.com and give us your full name – and that’s it. Then just turn up and pay (£25) on the night.
We are also delighted to advise that we will be exhibiting and speaking at The Property Investor Show – London, 19th - 21st September 2008, and would like to invite you to attend the show as our guest. If you are available on 19 - 21 September, please visit http://www.propertyinvestor.co.uk/london/register.asp. Simply type the promotional code S190770 into the relevant field and this will allow you to print off your free ticket to enter the show. (You will still need to pay to go into seminars)
I am speaking 4 times at this show – on my own and at a workshop with Designs on Property’s Kate Faulkner.
ABOUT LETTINGFOCUS.COM and DAVID LAWRENSON
I’m David Lawrenson of property experts lettingfocus.com.
I’m the author of “Successful Property Letting - How to Make Money in Buy to Let” which for the last 3 years has been the UK’s top selling property title - buy the UK's top selling landlord book.
It is fully up to date with all the recent changes to tenancy deposit schemes, HMOs, licensing, capital gains taxes and it has new sections on buying property below market value.
I’m an expert property journalist, property speaker and a well known buy to let blogger
I contribute to newspapers and a host of property websites, write a number of columns in the press and I provide landlords training & education
I also work as a consultant helping banks, building societies, housing associations and web portals with their buy to let and property products and services and am a regular speaker at property shows.
You can read more of my blog & find details of my networking, advice, property training programme at my website.What’s unique about lettingfocus.com is that we offer you help as an independent property investors coach because unlike most people in the buy to let and property “advice” business we are not linked to a property company, a developer, an agent or bridging loan financier and do not receive commissions from any of these sources.Copyright: David Lawrenson 2008. This blog is updated once a week.
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Falling House Building Starts and Rising Rents is Good News For Those Who Buy Today says Lawrenson of LettingFocus.com

Just today, we have seen the most pessimistic RICS survey of the housing market ever.
The new Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) study found that the market is in its worst state for 30 years after a record number of estate agents reported falling property prices.
RICS said 82 per cent of estate agents in the UK had seen a drop in prices since the start of the year, with just one per cent reporting a rise. The ratio is the worst since records began in 1978, and means that the housing slump is even more widespread than during the crash of the early 1990s.
From reading these figures, it is my view that we are some still way off the bottom, possibly as much as 18 months off (though how far away the bottom is will depend upon on what other skeletons the banks have in the closet that they haven’t “discovered” or owned up to yet) This will all determine how long the resulting dearth of credit will last.
However, I would urge you to look at what is happening in your local area very carefully as it may differ very much from this national picture. As professional investors know, not all areas are the same. Some offer potential and some offer a potential to lose a lot of money.
Meanwhile, rents are rocketing outside the oversupplied new build buy to let ghettoes
I have just successfully pushed through some chunky rent increases on my own buy to lets.
In some parts of south east London where I have a few properties rents are up by well over 15%, but I have kept my increases some way below that because my tenants have been with me a while and I value that commitment from them plus I know I can trust them to pay the rent and look after my properties.

Fal In New Building Starts
At the same time as house prices have fallen, the lack of house buyers has resulted in a big fall in house building starts which are down 10% on a year ago. These figures are likely to get worse still as house builders twiddle their thumbs waiting for someone to come into their show homes, if only for a chat about what was on Corrie last night.
It all means that when the credit freeze finally unfreezes and the lenders start falling over themselves to lend all over again, there is going to be an even greater shortage of property that the new mortgage money will be chasing and when that happens prices will I think really take off fast.
So my simple message is this: It is hard to call the actual bottom of the housing market.
So look around you, make cheeky offers on property purchases and once you have the property you can enjoy strong rental growth. The capital growth may have to wait, but it will come and when it comes, it will come fast.
ABOUT LETTINGFOCUS.COM and DAVID LAWRENSON
I’m David Lawrenson a buy to let and landlord expert from lettingfocus.com.
I’m the author of “Successful Property Letting - How to Make Money in Buy to Let” which for the last 2 years has been the UK’s top selling property title: buy the UK's top selling property investment book
It is fully up to date with all the recent changes to tenancy deposit schemes, HMOs, licensing, capital gains taxes and it has new sections on buying property below market value. I’m an expert property investment speaker and a well known property investment blogger and I contribute to newspapers and a host of property websites, write a property investment blog, a number of columns in the press and I can provide advice for landlords
Check out where I was recently featured in the Daily Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/24/cmbuy24.xml&page=1
http://propertyclub.telegraph.co.uk/Page/View/222
I also work as a consultant helping banks, building societies, housing associations and web portals with their buy to let and property products and services and am a regular speaker at property shows.
You can read more of my blog & find details of my networking, advice, property investors networking programme at my website.What’s unique about lettingfocus.com is that we offer independent property coaching because unlike most people in the buy to let and property “advice” business we are not linked to a property company, a developer, an agent or bridging loan financier and do not receive commissions from any of these sources.If a property investment is lousy – We’ll tell you straight and we will tell you all about buy to let and property investment - the good and the bad and we won’t make silly promises that you’ll become a millionaire overnight.
Copyright: David Lawrenson 2008. This blog is updated once a week. Permission must be sought before using the material in the blog.

Immigration flow may reverse says David Lawrenson of Letting Focus

One of the big threats to buy to let is the risk that the big flow of immigration may one day start to reverse.
New migrants generally rent and the huge numbers coming to the UK – we are talking millions but the fact is no one really knows least of the all the government – have pushed up demand for rented property.
However, the tide could be turning as the economies of the new EU member states strengthen. The numbers of east European immigrants approved to work in Britain dropped from 227,875 in 2006 to 206,905 last year, a fall of nearly 10 per cent, and the trend is expected to accelerate over the next decade. According to the Independent, “Poles, who make up two-thirds of the newcomers, are understood to be returning home in greater numbers, drawn by higher salaries, job shortages and the fall in the value of the pound against the Zloty”

Mortgage Rates
Also, in yesterdays papers was the threat that mortgages could get more pricey. The Head of the City Regulator the FSA said banks may be forced to keep loans on their own books in future rather than packaging them up and selling them off. This could have the affect of raising the cost of money. My view is that this fear is a bit overblown as there are still plenty of other sources of finance available like the building societies.
Meanwhile, in a separate move, Nationwide has raised the amount of deposit required for access to its best loans to 25%. I feel that this news is more significant for the housing market because this tightening of credit, if followed by other lenders, could lead to a bit of a donwturn in housing prices as borrowers find it harder to get funds. Possibly as much as 5 to 7% over the next year if others lenders follow suit.

Buy to Let Mortgage Rates
What about buy to let mortgages? As far as we can see lenders have now stuck another 20 basis points onto the cost of these loans relative to bank base rate than was the case pre-credit crunch days. However, buy to let loans are still available at 80% loan to value. So, if your credit rating is good, and you have access to money, the effect of all this will be that more property should be available to buy (to let) at lower prices than was available before.
Finally, I was quoted extensively in yesterdays Independent. Here is the link to copy into your broswer: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/house-and-home/property/investment-get-the-best-deals-ndash-now-787640.html
If you need more advice on property investment or buy to let investment in general please ask me.
I’m David Lawrenson from property investment advisors http://www.lettingfocus.com/
I’m the author of the buy to let book “Successful Property Letting - How to Make Money in Buy to Let” the UK’s top selling property title.I’m an expert on property investing for profit and a well known property freelance writer and I contribute to newspapers and a host of property websites, write a property investment blog, a number of columns in the press and run a landlords advice service.
I also work as a consultant helping banks, building societies, housing associations and web portals with their buy to let and property products and services.
You can read more of my property investment blog and details of my networking, advice, buy to let networking programme at my website http://www.lettingfocus.com/
My next London landlords networking meeting is on March 12th. Click here for details: Property Investment Advice
What’s unique about lettingfocus.com is that we offer independent property mentoring because unlike most people in the buy to let and property “advice” business we are not linked to a property company, developer, agent or bridging loan financier and do not receive commissions from any of these sources.If a property investment is lousy – We’ll tell you straight and we will tell you all about buy to let and property investment - the good and the bad and we won’t make silly promises that you’ll become a millionaire overnight.
Copyright: David Lawrenson 2008. This blog is updated at least twice a week. Permission must be sought before using the material in the blog.

Don’t believe this talk of a housing crash says LettingFocus

The media is still doing their best to talk up a recession and a fall in house prices.
However, out in the real world, the real market (outside the awful oversupplied and in places fraud ridden new build sector) is stubbornly staying relatively strong.
Indeed, the UK property market is gaining momentum according a preview of figures from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) monthly housing market survey. Buyers on books, housing stock and sales all increased in January in an upward trend.
They say that after a seasonally slow December, the market is beginning to pick up again, with the number of house buyers up 11% in January and first time buyers accounting for 14.5% of all sales, a rise of just over 3% for the same period last year. Well, of course the NAEA’s job is to talk up the market, naturally.
But even if you look behind the figures you still don’t see a big fall off in activity.
OK repossessions are up and filling the auction rooms, that is true – and yes the papers love to scream this from the rooftops. It sells papers after all.
But the fact is that repossessions are low by historic measures.
OK, they are almost three times up on 2004, buy hey interest rates were unusually low at that time, so that’s kind of what you would expect.

Repossesion Rates
But according to the FT “the increase merely takes repossessions from an extremely low level to a pretty low level”
They highlight that as a proportion of outstanding mortgages, only 0.11 per cent (one in a thousdand) were repossessed in the second half of 2007 – exactly the same proportion as in the first half and actually four times lower than the peak of repossessions which occurred in the second half of 1991.
The FT goes on to say that analysis of the figures show that “at no point in the 1990s was the rate of repossession any lower than it is today.”
So, those are the real facts behind the tabloid headlines.
What’s my take on all this.
Well, I was hoping for a stalling hosuing market so that I could get some good property deals.
At the moment there is only a slight slowdown and vendors will listen to offers but so far the market is still staying relatively strong. That may change during the year.
Meanwhile to find out what’s really happening in the property market, do what I do, stick to the FT and avoid all the nonsense and hype in the other papers. And definitely avoid the Get Rich Quick in Property courses and companies.

About David Lawrenson
If you need more advice on where to buy investment property ask me. I’m David Lawrenson from independent property investment experts www.lettingfocus.com
I’m the author of the landlords bible “Successful Property Letting - How to Make Money in Buy to Let” the UK’s top selling property title.
I’m an expert on property letting and a well known writer on buy to let and I contribute to newspapers and a host of property websites, write a property investment blog and run a landlord and tenant advice service - check out my columns for FinancialExpress.net and Archant’s “The Guide” magazine
I also work as a consultant helping banks, building societies, housing associations and web portals with their buy to let and property products and services.
You can read more of my landlord blog and details of my networking, advice, property investors seminar programme at my website www.lettingfocus.com.
What’s unique about lettingfocus.com is that we offer independent property investment mentoring because unlike most people in the buy to let and property “advice” business we are not linked to a property company, developer, agent or bridging loan financier and do not receive commissions from any of these sources.
If a property investment is lousy we’ll tell you straight and we will tell you all about buy to let and property investment - the good and the bad and we won’t make silly promises that you’ll become a millionaire overnight.
Copyright: David Lawrenson 2008. This blog is updated at least twice a week. Permission must be sought before using the material in the blog.

RICS predicts a soft landing for house prices says Lawrenson of Letting Focus

In the last blog I said that repossessions are on the up – and explained how to buy repossessions at auction.
However, as I predicted throughout last year, unless you are in an area that is oversupplied with a particular property type, the fall off in house prices could be short-lived.
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) believes that the heaviest falls in house prices are behind us, going against current opinion of more house price falls
They said that the Bank of England's commitment to keep the market liquid will mean that interest rates will be cut back to five per cent during the first 6 months of 2008, making any negative price growth in the market short-lived.
They also said that repossessions will rise from 30,000 to 45,000, but that the current employment situation is strong enough to keep the market resilient and avoid any repeat of 80,000 repossessions back in the 1990s.
I agree.

Credit Availability - Mortgage Loans Harder to Get
Despite the RICs predictions for next year, they still see tough times ahead in 2008, with tighter lending conditions that are likely to impact on the buy-to-let market in particular. So, unless you have good credit, it could be tough to be an investor.
However, they also state that their research shows "little evidence of widespread sales of investment properties taking place".
The effect of the credit crunch will dissipate slowly meaning that those seeking to obtain finance in the first half of 2008 may struggle.
But the employment picture should be OK throughout the year, helping to prevent significant numbers of repossessions and the subsequent influx of supply into the market.
This should ensure that house price growth remains broadly flat over the course of the year.

ABOUT LETTINGFOCUS.COM and DAVID LAWRENSON
We are LettingFocus.com - the property investment experts.
I’m, David Lawrenson, the author of “Successful Property Letting” which for the last 3 years has been the UK’s top selling property book.
What’s unique about LettingFocus is that I offer independent unbiased
property networking seminars covering property investment and letting because unlike most people in the buy to let and property “advice” business I am not linked to a property company, developer, agent or bridging loan financier.
I can tell you where to buy (which areas), what type of property to buy, when to buy, how to buy property at a low price, how to make sure you get tenants who are going to pay the rent and how to manage a rental property to make money.
I can also comment on “No Money Down” Schemes and “Buying Below Market Value” methods too.
I can answer all your questions on letting property because I have been a landlord and property investor for over 25 years.

LINKS
Find out about GREAT DEALS we have arranged for landlords by clicking here: Property Investors’ Affiliate and seeing our Affiliates page.
More products will be added over the coming months. If you are a merchant with national coverage, get in touch!
For SEMINARS, click here: Property Seminars, Networking Evenings and Consulting
For the NEXT SEMINAR AND NETWORKING EVENT for Landlords and Property Investors click here:
Next Seminar Event
For ONE TO ONE CONSULTANCY help click here: Private One to One Consulting
For TESTIMONIALS from past customers click here: Testimonials
To BUY THE BOOK click here: Buy the Book at Amazon
For THE HOME PAGE OF THIS BLOG click here: Blog
For THE HOME PAGE OF OUR MAIN SITE click here: LettingFocus Home Page
For GREAT OFFERS on Products and Services for Landlords, click here: Landlords Resources
To JOIN our Free QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER simply send an email to david@LettingFocus.com - Please note we WILL NOT send spam or sell our mailing list to advertisers!
Copyright of Blog: David Lawrenson 2009.
This blog is updated roughly once a week usually on a Monday or Tuesday.

WANT TO BE KEPT UPDATED WITH OUR LATEST BLOGS?
Over on the right hand side under all the previous blog entries you will see a button which says “Site Feed.” Simply copy the site feed link into your News Reader or News Aggregator.
Please note if you have a website & are thinking of reproducing material here - that’s fine but we DO require a link to the blog to be included, including also all the links in this section. The full article including all links must be available to ALL VIEWERS of your site and not restricted.
To view posts on related topics click on Categories.

WANT TO ADD A COMMENT?
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Copyright: David Lawrenson 2007. This blog is updated at least twice a week. Permission must be sought before using the material in the blog.

Is the buy to let market dead. Answer – definitely not says Lawrenson of LettingFocus

As anyone who has come to hear me speak or has read my column will know all properties are not born equal.
We are seeing demand growing strongly for houses, while the oversupply of new-build properties means stalling or falling rents on flats.
The latest lettings survey from RICS shows that demand remains healthiest for family homes with 25% more surveyors reporting an increase in demand .
At the same time, the proportion of landlords opting to sell properties when tenants move out has risen from 6.1pc to 6.5pc in the past quarter, according to RICS – the highest level since January 2005.
Lots of experts will say this is a sign that higher house prices and falling rental yields are making it difficult for landlords to turn in a profit. It will also re-ignite concerns over the housing market.

Is Buy to Let Really Weak?
There are some experts who are warning the buy-to-let sector could be the weakest point in Britain’s property market, with some comparing it to the sub-prime sector in the US
My view is that the problems will be limited to those - mainly new landlords - who have bought flats in oversupplied areas from the less reputable property clubs.
Sure, there will be lots of individual stories of landlords hitting hard times, but savvy landllords will be delighted that the curent turn of events is giving them a great opportunity to buy property at below market value prices.
The auctions are busy with landlords snapping up cheap property and whispering to estate agents, “If you know someone who is really keen to sell, then talk to me.”

ABOUT LETTINGFOCUS.COM and DAVID LAWRENSON
We are LettingFocus.com - the property experts and I’m David Lawrenson, the author of “Successful Property Letting” - the UK’s top selling property book for the last 3 years.
What’s unique about LettingFocus is that I offer independent unbiased
property seminars covering property investment and letting because unlike most people in the buy to let and property “advice” business I am not linked to a property company, developer, agent or bridging loan financier.
I can tell you where to buy (which areas), what type of property to buy, when to buy, how to buy property at a low price, how to make sure you get tenants who are going to pay the rent and how to manage a rental property to make money.
I can also comment on “No Money Down” Schemes and “Buying Below Market Value” methods too.
I can answer most questions on letting property because I have been a landlord and property investor for over 25 years.

LINKS
Find out about GREAT DEALS we have arranged for landlords by clicking here: Services for Landlords and seeing our Landlords’ Affiliate page. If you sell products to landlords and property investors and you have national coverage, get in touch!
For SEMINARS click here: Property Seminars, Networking Evenings and Consulting
For the NEXT SEMINAR AND NETWORKING EVENT for Landlords and Property Investors click here: Next Seminar Event
For ONE TO ONE CONSULTANCY help click here: Private One to One Consulting
For TESTIMONIALS from past customers click here: Testimonials
To BUY THE BOOK click here: Buy the Book at Amazon
For THE HOME PAGE OF THIS BLOG click here: Blog
For THE HOME PAGE OF OUR MAIN SITE click here: LettingFocus Home Page
For GREAT OFFERS on Products and Services for Landlords, click here: Landlords Resources
To JOIN our Free QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER simply send an email to david@LettingFocus.com - Please note we WILL NOT send spam or sell our mailing list to advertisers!
Copyright of Blog: David Lawrenson 2009.
This blog is updated roughly once a week usually on a Monday or Tuesday.

WANT TO BE KEPT UPDATED WITH OUR LATEST BLOGS?
Over on the right hand side under all the previous blog entries you will see a button which says “Site Feed.” Simply copy the site feed link into your News Reader or News Aggregator.
Please note if you have a website & are thinking of reproducing material here - that’s fine but we DO require a link to the blog to be included, including also all the links in this section. The full article including all links must be available to ALL VIEWERS of your site and not restricted.
To view posts on related topics select a “Category” at the bottom of this page.
WANT TO ADD A COMMENT?
To add a comment to this post, you just click on “link to this post” then simply add your comment.
To view past comments, again and rather oddly (we think), you’ll need to click “link to this post” and view the comments (which will appear at the bottom of the post.)

Housing Statistics- Dig Around to Find Which Area is Hot and Which Is Not

Serious investors should be getting regular reports from all the main house price indices.
Sure, there is lots of stuff that’s on line these days – most is based on the land registry data - so you can look at an area and see if the house prices in that area have gone up, down or sideways.
Sites like upmystreet.co.uk also add in lots of other bits of useful data - so you can see crime figures, school performance and the like for a particular area.
But there is a lot to be said for getting on the actual mail list for stats and press releases from the likes of the Council of Mortgage Lenders and the Nationwide, Halifax and Alliance & Leicester. They all produce great stats and press releases.
Have a dig in the detailed stats – there is some amazing and useful information that you can use when you are assessing an area to buy into.

MORE ABOUT LETTINGFOCUS AND WHAT WE DO

LettingFocus.com is the home of landlord information.

I’m David Lawrenson, a landlord and property investor myself for over 25 years and author of “Successful Property Letting” – the UK’s top selling commercially published property book for the last 3 years.

Services to Businesses and the Public Sector

Primarily I am a consultant to banks, local authorities, social housing providers and other organisations – helping them with their landlord facing or buy to let product strategies and services.

For example, I help banks improve their buy to let mortgage lending practices and I help housing association / local authorities find private landlords (private rented access schemes, local letting agency models etc.)
I also write for property websites and am regularly quoted by the broadcast media.

Services for Private Landlords

For private landlords and other investors in the private rented sector, we do just two London seminars each year.
We also find some spare time to help landlords and property investors by coaching them in how to make money in the private rented sector using ways that work, which are ethical, fair to tenants and which involve minimal risk to the investor.
We pride ourselves on giving independent unbiased buy to let advice on either a one-to-one mentoring / coaching basis or through our occasional group seminars. With no links to property firms, developers or bridging loan providers we can advise on where and what type of property to buy for investment and when to buy it. We also show you how to manage tenants properly.

AT OUR WEBSITE LETTINGFOCUS.COM:

THE HOME PAGE OF THIS BLOG click here: Blog

THE HOME PAGE OF OUR MAIN SITE click here: LettingFocus Home Page

For general info on our CONSULTING click here: Consultancy and Seminars

ONE TO ONE PRIVATE CONSULTANCY click here: Property Mentoring

NEXT SEMINAR AND NETWORKING EVENT for Landlords and Property Investors:
Next Property Investment Seminar and Networking Event

We have OFFERS on a range of services and products for landlords too; click here including landlords insurance, tenant referencing, tenancy agreements and more: Services and Products for Landlords

TO READ CLIENT TESTIMONIALS – both commercial and private click here: Testimonials

BUY “SUCCESSFUL PROPERTY LETTING” click here: Buy the Book at Amazon plus anything else you fancy at Amazon.co.uk

To JOIN our Free QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER simply send an email to david@LettingFocus.com - Please note we WILL NOT send spam or sell our mailing list to advertisers!

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PLEASE GET IN TOUCH!

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Copyright of Blog: David Lawrenson 2007. This blog is updated roughly once a week usually on a Monday or Tuesday.

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