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LettingFocus

Unbiased buy to let, property investment and letting coaching, mentoring, advice and seminars for landlords from top selling property author and media commentator.

Property Investment near London and Transport by Letting Focus

I was going through my blogs from two years ago to see how well my predictions have done - and generally I’m pretty happy.
One interesting blog post from that time looked at how house prices might change in the area around Ebbsfleet following the future completion and opening of the new international station there which would connect North West Kent to Brussels and Paris in a couple of hours.
This new line also connects Ebbsfleet with Central London - journey time less than 20 minutes - compared with local station Swanscombe to London which takes about an hour.
When I wrote the blog two years ago, I had just done a little tour around the area.
At that time the station was still being built - but it is now finished and smart new trains now whiz up and down the line at great speeds.
What interested me then and what had bought me down to Kent that day was the fact that this was a really great transport connection which would normally be expected to push house prices up nicely as it brings in demand from people to live in an area (as well as from businesses to set up business there).

New Build v Transport Connection
But what also interested me as a property investing buyer way back then was the huge amount of new build that was coming on stream and I was fascinated to see how this would play out - because lots of new property adding to existing stock can obviously soak up demand and hold prices back.
As an example, think about how the oversupply of lots of identikit new build flats in the years 1997 – 2005 clobbered prices of flats (and rent levels) in many of our inner cities in the period from 2000-2008.
When I wrote the blog two years ago, I felt that the new supply in the local area was of such scale that it was likely to negate most of the huge positive effects on house price growth which would come from the new international station.
So, I decided against buying there.

Back to Ebbsfleet, Swanscombe, Gravesend and Northfleet
Last week I went back.
My partner had insisted we went to the nearby Bluewater Shopping Centre to get a new sofa. “Your tenants would not put up with a broken sofa for 6 months” she said. “And neither will I”
As Hater in Chief of Shopping (and especially of Bluewater) I offered to do the house cleaning for three weeks. But no, she wanted me to see the new sofa.
So, I went and consoled myself with taking the opportunity to see what’s happened to prices of houses in the area near Ebbsfleet.
Well, I have to say the oversupply seems to have won (so far).
Offer prices of the sort of two up two downs I had looked at in Swanscombe and Gravesend were down from about £175K two years ago to less than £150K generally now, a fall that is greater than other areas I know well - in the more central suburban parts of south east London.
It’s not a scientific study I know, but right now there seems that all the new build stock around the area has easily soaked up the boost to house prices from the new station.

The Future for House Prices in North West Kent near Ebbsfleet

Things could yet change.
When the economy improves, new businesses will invest in that area which now has great transport connections. Whether there is enough effect from this to push up house prices very much remains to be seen.
The message is - always look into the effects that future new stock of housing will have on house prices. You can find this out from the local planning dept at the local authority.
Check out also, this article from my Articles page: http://www.lettingfocus.com/pages/myarticles_BuytoLetLandlords%26RentedSectorGrowth.html

The Old Post

Here is a link to that post from two years ago:
http://www.lettingfocus.com/2007/11/should-you-buy-in-area-near-to-new.html

ABOUT LETTINGFOCUS.COM and DAVID LAWRENSON
We are LettingFocus.com - the landlords' experts and I’m David Lawrenson, the author of “Successful Property Letting” - the UK’s top selling property and buy to let book for the last 3 years.
What’s unique about us is that we offer independent unbiased
seminar events for property investors and one to one advice covering all aspects of being a landlord and investing in property.
Property is largely unregulated and in the buy to let and property “advice” business I am fairly unique not linked to a property company, developer, estate agency or bridging loan provider.
I advise where to buy (which areas), what type of property to buy, when to buy, how to buy property at a low price, how to eliminate the risk of getting a bad tenant and more. I have been a landlord and property investor myself for over 25 years.

THE PAGES AT OUR SITE LETTINGFOCUS.COM:
Our Events only take place twice a year. For our NEXT SEMINAR AND NETWORKING EVENT for Landlords and Property Investors click here:
Next Property Seminar and Networking Event
Find out about GREAT DEALS we have arranged for landlords by clicking here: Partner Services for Landlords and seeing our Landlords’ Resources (Useful Links) page.
If you sell products to landlords and property investors and you have national coverage and would like to be on this page as a partner, please get in touch!
For general info on our SEMINARS AND CONSULTING programme click here: Property Seminars, Networking Evenings and Consulting
ONE TO ONE CONSULTING click here: Property Consulting
CLIENT TESTIMONIALS from past customers click here: Testimonials
BUY THE BOOK click here: Buy the Book at Amazon
THE HOME PAGE OF OUR MAIN SITE click here: LettingFocus Home Page
To JOIN our Free QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER simply send an email to [email protected] - Please note we WILL NOT send spam or sell our mailing list to advertisers!
IF YOU HAVE A SITE WHY NOT LINK TO THIS BLOG OR OUR WEBSITE?
Copyright of Blog: David Lawrenson 2009. This blog is updated roughly once a week usually on a Monday or Tuesday.

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New Stations and Property Investing by Lawrenson Letting Focus

From Ebbsfleet in North West Kent, Paris is just two hours and a bit away - and it looks on the face of it as though all these areas will surely benefit, inevitably pushing up prices of houses and rents.
Northfleet, Gravesend and surrounding areas near Ebbsfleet have been cheap for quite a while compared to the rest of the South East but I think there is a risk that the abundance of new houses planned for this part of Kent, could lead to an over-supply developing.

New Housing Supply
In fact there will about 30,000 houses built in the area between Dartford and Gravesend which is all part of the Thames Gateway regeneration scheme.
The scale of the development is big, including, in Ebbsfleet Valley next to the station itself, a massive development that will hold shops, offices and over 6,000 of these houses.
The new station is about 36 miles from London, next to the A2 and the village of Swanscombe and only about a mile from Northfleet which is in turn joined up to Gravesend. Dartford town centre is about 6 miles away to the west.
Trains are now running to the continent but it won’t be open for local people to get to London until December 2009 when it will slash the journey time to London by a massive half an hour to just 17 minutes – though as yet no one knows how much this fast service will cost.
Property prices have been edging up surely and steadily.

House Prices Now
A standard 2 bed terrace house in an ordinary part of Gravesend last year was about £135,000 a year ago but a quick look at Rightmove shows they are now around the £185,000 mark.
Rent in Gravesend give a good guide to the area – a standard 2 bed terrace goes for about £550 per month and a 4 bedroom property would be anywhere from £800 per month upward.
Average prices for all properties in Gravesend were about £145K in 2003 and are about £215K now (source: upmystreet.co.uk) a rise of about 48%, and not far off the London rate of increase.
Amongst the new developments coming into Dartford are Barratts and Crest Nicholson who are building apartments and homes priced from £210,000, £240,000.

House Prices and Rents
But will the international link and its position do the trick for house prices and rents in the area?
Obviously, other new transport links in London have driven forward new frontier areas such as Canary Wharf - and East and South London have already felt the benefits of the Docklands Light Railway and the extension to the Jubilee Line - and the soon to be extended East London line is already pushing up prices in places on the new line especially in areas like Forest Hill, Brockley and Hackney.
Of course, there is a risk that people hoping to get in on the back of the transport and other developments at Ebbsfleet could fall victims to developers over-hyping and over-supplying a location and setting prices above what an area can really sustain with adverse consequences for home owners and investors.
This phenomenon was well illustrated in the “Truth about Property” TV programme screened on 25th October where investors in flats in some areas of the north 3 years ago are now facing big losses.

Too Many Houses
It could be worth investors taking a look, however a local agent I know says the area is stuffed full of landlords chasing a small supply of tenants, so watch out - this could be a buy to let ghetto in the making.
Another factor to watch out for in some of these areas that are near the Thames and other low lying areas is that of floods and flooding. For more on that see this article: http://www.lettingfocus.com/pages/myarticles_Flooding.html


ABOUT LETTINGFOCUS.COM and DAVID LAWRENSON
We are LettingFocus.com - the landlord experts and I’m David Lawrenson, the author of “Successful Property Letting” - the UK’s top selling property and buy to let book for the last 3 years.
What’s unique about LettingFocus is that I offer independent unbiased
seminars for property investors and one to one advice covering all aspects of being a landlord and investing in property.
Unlike many in the still largely unreguated buy to let and property “advice” business I am not linked to a property company, developer, estate agency or bridging loan provider.
I can advise where to buy (which areas), what type of property to buy, when to buy, how to buy property at a low price, how to eliminate the risk of getting a bad tenant and more. I have been a landlord and property investor myself for over 25 years.

CHECK OUT THESE PAGES AT OUR SITE LETTINGFOCUS.COM:
Our Events only take place twice a year. For our NEXT SEMINAR AND NETWORKING EVENT for Landlords and Property Investors click here:
Next Property Seminar and Networking Event
Find out about GREAT DEALS we have arranged for landlords by clicking here: Services and Products for Landlords and seeing our Landlords’ Resources (Useful Links) page.
If you sell products to landlords and property investors and you have national coverage and would like to be on this page as a partner, please get in touch!
For general info on our SEMINARS AND CONSULTING click here: Property Seminars, Networking Evenings and Consulting
ONE TO ONE CONSULTING click here: Property Consulting
CLIENT TESTIMONIALS from past customers click here: Testimonials
BUY THE BOOK click here: Buy the Book at Amazon
THE HOME PAGE OF THIS BLOG click here: Blog
THE HOME PAGE OF OUR MAIN SITE click here: LettingFocus Home Page
To JOIN our Free QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER simply send an email to [email protected] - Please note we WILL NOT send spam or sell our mailing list to advertisers!
IF YOU HAVE A SITE WHY NOT LINK TO THIS BLOG OR OUR WEBSITE?

WANT TO BE KEPT UPDATED WITH OUR LATEST BLOGS?
Over on the right hand side under all the previous blog entries you will find a button which says “Site Feed.” Simply copy the site feed link into your News Reader or News Aggregator.
If you have a website & are thinking of reproducing material here, that’s fine but we DO require a link to the blog to be included, including also all the links in this section. (The full article including all links must be available to ALL VIEWERS of your site and not restricted.)
TO VIEW RELATED POSTS select a “Category” at the bottom of this page.
WANT TO ADD A COMMENT OR VIEW OLD COMMENTS?
To add a comment to this post, simply click on “link to this post” to add your comment and to view comments of other people.
Copyright: David Lawrenson 2007. This blog is updated once a week.

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Are New Build Flats Good Investments? Lawrenson of Letting Focus Takes a Look

If you are thinking of buying a new build flat, be careful because it’s now clear that increasing numbers of properties bought off-plan as buy-to-let investments are being sold at large losses through auction.
Auction houses are reporting a steep rise in the number of new builds going under the hammer.
Many of these are flats bought off-plan two or three years ago with rental guarantees.
They were often bought on fixed-rate mortgages which came to an end at the same time as the rental guarantees finished, leaving landlords stuck on much higher borrowing costs, buy wth lower rental income and possibly no tenant.
It gives me no pleasure to say I have been predicting this for 5 years.
The situation is, of course, especially grim for flats where investors have bought in a block of hundreds of other investors who are in the same situation.

New Build Prices Going Down
New build prices have also gone down each month for the last three months, according to SmartNewHomes, while UCB Homeloans, part of Nationwide is one of the main lenders who has stopped lending to landlords buying new apartments. It's not the only lender to have stopped either.
Knight Frank research show that yields are now at their lowest levels on new build flats.
Chris Town of the Residential Landlords Association is quoted in “The Times” telling of one landlord in Leeds who has recently been forced to reduce his monthly rent from £1200 to £800. My message is to avoid areas where there is an oversupply or can be expected to be an oversupply of the same kind of property in the future- and where there are too many landlords chasing a small pool of tenants. This is the situation in many cities in the north and the midlands of England right now. And it will remain so for some time.

ABOUT LETTINGFOCUS.COM and DAVID LAWRENSON
We are LettingFocus.com - the landlords’ expert and I’m David Lawrenson, the author of “Successful Property Letting” - the UK’s top selling property and buy to let book for the last 3 years.
I have been a landlord and property investor myself for over 25 years.
At LettingFocus we offer independent unbiased
seminars for buy to let investors and landlords as well as one to one advice covering all aspects of being a landlord and investing in property.
Unlike many in the still largely unreguated buy to let and property “advice” business I am not linked to a property company, developer, estate agency or bridging loan provider.
As such I am able to give unbiased independent advice on where to buy (which areas), what type of property to buy, when to buy and how to buy property at a low price. I can also explain how to reduce the risk of getting a bad tenant.

THE PAGES AT OUR SITE, LETTINGFOCUS.COM:
Our Events only take place twice a year.
For our NEXT SEMINAR AND NETWORKING EVENT for Landlords and Property Investors click here:
Next Property Investing Seminar and Networking Event
We have GREAT OFFERS for landlords too, Click here: Services and Products for Landlords to see our Landlords Resources (Useful Links) page. (Selling services to landlords and property investors and have a national coverage? You could be a partner, please get in touch!)
For general info on our SEMINARS AND CONSULTING click here: Property Seminars, Networking Evenings and Consulting
ONE TO ONE CONSULTING click here: Property Consulting
CLIENT TESTIMONIALS from past customers click here: Testimonials
BUY THE BOOK click here: Buy the Book at Amazon
THE HOME PAGE OF THIS BLOG click here: Blog
THE HOME PAGE OF OUR MAIN SITE click here: LettingFocus Home Page
To JOIN our Free QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER simply send an email to [email protected] - Please note we WILL NOT send spam or sell our mailing list to advertisers!

Related Article
This article look at the credit crunch and how it is going to affect house prices generally:
http://www.lettingfocus.com/pages/myarticles_CreditCrunch.html

IF YOU HAVE A SITE WHY NOT LINK TO THIS BLOG OR OUR WEBSITE?
Copyright of Blog: David Lawrenson 2009. This blog is updated roughly once a week usually on a Monday or Tuesday.
WANT TO BE KEPT UPDATED WITH OUR LATEST BLOGS?
Over on the right hand side under all the previous blog entries you will find a button which says “Site Feed.” Simply copy the site feed link into your News Reader or News Aggregator.
If you have a website & are thinking of reproducing material here, that’s fine but we DO require a link to the blog to be included, including also all the links in this section. (The full article including all links must be available to ALL VIEWERS of your site and not restricted.)
Copyright: David Lawrenson 2007. This blog is updated at least twice a week. Permission must be sought before using the material in the blog.

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Property prices and buy to let after the credit crunch by Lettting Focus

What will happen to property prices and what will happen to buy to let and property investment after the credit crunch?
Well, now we know that the Bank of England was now thrown a lifeline to the Northern Rock and has in effect underwritten its deposits.
And much money has been made and lost in the city on trading in the shares of NR as well as Alliance & Leicester, Bradford and Bingley and Paragon - which have all seen huge gyrations in their share prices. (Expect a wee enquiry into these gyrations at some future point! I can’t help but smell a rat here!)
But back to property!

Money Markets and Buy to Let
As you may know, not all lenders raise as much cash from the money markets as Northern Rock did.
Nationwide and Halifax Bank of Scotland only get about a third of cash in this way, though that’s still been enough for lenders like these to raise their standard variable rate by up to 0.2%.
Other banks who have used the credit markets more to raise money are Bradford & Bingley and Alliance & Leicester – and their stock market prices have sea-sawed along with Northern Rock, though not quite as much.

Mortgage Trackers
If you took out a Bank of England base rate mortgage tracker for a long term, then you can sit back and relax. Your rate will not go up unless base rates do.
But if you are on a mortgage linked to the standard variable rate one or one where the fixed term expires soon, then be prepared for a hike in your rate right now.
Back in 1988 I took out a loan with a lender that raised funds on the money markets – and not linked to central bank base rates. There then followed a credit crunch and my rate went up.
I learnt my lesson way back then.
However, lots of landlords have borrowed from lenders who raise their funds in the money markets. I have not seen figures on this, but my guess is that it is a much higher proportion than on standard residential mortgages.

Mortgage Rate Hikes
Therefore, mortgage rate hikes for landlords could be particularly high and may force some to sell property, opening up an opportunity to others to buy property cheaply. (And if the private rented sector declines, rents will surely rise)
But what does this all stuff mean for house prices?
Well, lenders have already tightened up their lending criteria. They will look much more closely at (and may refuse) to lend on “risky” deals like ex council, new build flats with gifted discounts in oversupplied areas or at loan to values much over 75%.
It could also mean the “no money down deals” may only be available to experienced investors with good track records who are known to a lender.

Oversupply of Property
Now, for a long time I have said there is still an oversupply in some areas.
I forecast falls in house prices in areas that are heavily oversupplied with too much of one kind of property.
Sorry folks, but many cities in the North have too many flats for the current state of their local economies and I predict prices will come down by at least 10% in these towns over the next 12 months.
I’m not alone here. Anne Ashworth, writing in the Times today, cites Liverpool as a good case in point.
However, other areas which are not oversupplied will do well and see prices and rents hold up and indeed go up.
But while all this interest rates stuff is important it is actually a bit of a side show because the real factor that is driving up the UK’s house prices is the expanding population and the lack of housing supply.

Northern Ireland
Take Northern Ireland as an example. Why did prices surge 50% in 12 months in Ulster recently? True there was a bit of property speculation, and the peace dividend also played a part. But another story that you won’t hear about in the press (well you may in the Daily Mail) was a large migration to Ulster from mainland UK by workers mainly from the new EU.
Now, if the UK economy becomes less attractive to workers from the new EU relative to other places in Europe, then much of the inward migration could fast turn the other way as workers return home or move to other better economies.
I don’t think this could happen anytime soon, but if it did, that really could put the skids on house prices and rental levels.

ABOUT LETTINGFOCUS.COM and DAVID LAWRENSON
We are LettingFocus.com - the landlords’ expert and I’m David Lawrenson, the author of “Successful Property Letting” - the UK’s top selling property and buy to let book for the last 3 years.
I have been a landlord and property investor myself for over 25 years.
At LettingFocus we offer independent unbiased seminars for buy to let investors and landlords as well as one to one advice covering all aspects of being a landlord and investing in property.

MAIN PAGES AT OUR SITE LETTINGFOCUS.COM:
Our Events only take place twice a year.
For our NEXT SEMINAR AND NETWORKING EVENT for Landlords and Property Investors click here:
Next Property Investing Seminar and Networking Event
We have GREAT OFFERS for landlords too, Click here: Services and Products for Landlords to see our Landlords Resources (Useful Links) page. (Selling services to landlords and property investors and have a national coverage? You could be a partner, please get in touch!)
For general info on our SEMINARS AND CONSULTING click here: Property Seminars, Networking Evenings and Consulting
ONE TO ONE CONSULTING click here: Property Consulting
CLIENT TESTIMONIALS from past customers click here: Testimonials
BUY THE BOOK click here: Buy the Book at Amazon
THE HOME PAGE OF THIS BLOG click here: Blog
THE HOME PAGE OF OUR MAIN SITE click here: LettingFocus Home Page
To JOIN our Free QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER simply send an email to [email protected] - Please note we WILL NOT send spam or sell our mailing list to advertisers!

Have You Seen this Article on Tenancy Agreements - Is Yours Fair? http://www.lettingfocus.com/pages/myarticles10.html

IF YOU HAVE A SITE WHY NOT LINK TO THIS BLOG OR OUR WEBSITE?

TO VIEW RELATED POSTS select a “Category” at the bottom of this page.
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To add a comment to this post, simply click on “link to this post” to add your comment and to view comments of other people.

Click here to listen to me on BBC Radio 4 Money Box programme: http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/podcasts/moneybox/ and then click on “Download episode for 22nd September”
What’s unique about lettingfocus.com is that we are unbiased and independent, because unlike most people in the buy to let and property “advice” business we are not linked to a property company, developer, agent or bridging loan financier and do not receive commissions from any of these sources.
If a property investment is lousy – We’ll tell you straight and we will tell you all about buy to let and property investment - the good and the bad and we won’t make silly promises that you’ll become a millionaire overnight.
Copyright: David Lawrenson 2007. This blog is updated every week.

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Thames Gateway And Buy to Lets by LettingFocus

Interesting to see on BBC's "Working Lunch" today that at least one part of the Thames Gateway is full of buy to letters.
I predicted this about 9 months ago when I wrote up on the area around Ebbsfleet for a property website.
Back then a few agents had told me that the only people buying in the area were buy to let investors.
Now Ebbsfleet is a great station with great connections but I see lots of new properties and not much in the way of jobs locally yet.
And if a lot of the new build is being gobbled up by investors and then let out, I still think this is one area to avoid - for now at least.

MORE ABOUT LETTINGFOCUS AND WHAT WE DO

LettingFocus.com is the home of landlord information.

I’m David Lawrenson, a landlord and property investor myself for over 25 years and author of “Successful Property Letting” – the UK’s top selling commercially published property book for the last 3 years.


Services to Businesses and the Public Sector

Primarily I am a consultant to banks, local authorities, social housing providers and other organisations – helping them with their landlord facing or buy to let product strategies and services.

For example, I help banks improve their buy to let mortgage lending practices and I help housing association / local authorities find private landlords (private rented access schemes, local letting agency models etc.)
I also write for property websites and am regularly quoted by the broadcast media.

Services for Private Landlords

We also find some spare time to help landlords and property investors by coaching them in how to make money in the private rented sector using ways that work, which are ethical, fair to tenants and which involve minimal risk to the investor.
We pride ourselves on giving independent unbiased buy to let advice on either a one-to-one mentoring / coaching basis or through our occasional group seminars. With no links to property firms, developers or bridging loan providers we can advise on where and what type of property to buy for investment and when to buy it. We also show you how to manage tenants properly.

AT OUR WEBSITE LETTINGFOCUS.COM:

THE HOME PAGE OF THIS BLOG click here: Blog

THE HOME PAGE OF OUR MAIN SITE click here: LettingFocus Home Page


For general info on our CONSULTING click here: Consultancy and Seminars


ONE TO ONE PRIVATE CONSULTANCY click here: Property Mentoring


NEXT SEMINAR AND NETWORKING EVENT for Landlords and Property Investors:
Next Property Investment Seminar and Networking Event

We have OFFERS on a range of services and products for landlords too; click here including landlords insurance, tenant referencing, tenancy agreements and more: Services and Products for Landlords

TO READ CLIENT TESTIMONIALS – both commercial and private click here: Testimonials

BUY “SUCCESSFUL PROPERTY LETTING” click here: Buy the Book at Amazon plus anything else you fancy at Amazon.co.uk

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Copyright of Blog:
David Lawrenson 2007. This blog is updated roughly once a week usually on a Monday or Tuesday.

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